Friday, April 26, 2019

AMD on 15min chart using Tradingview - 6 hurdles that a trader has to overcome - Introduction to Accelotrade

Hello everyone,

I have here a recorded session of yesterday that you can use to review what we covered yesterday. 

We discussed about the 15min move of AMD, how it played out in a 15min chart, the formation of candles, volume analysis, breakouts on 200SMA, sustaining the move by using the SMA as a trampoline to jump higher but also retesting the support line which is sometimes the SMA itself, most especially the 50SMA, and 200SMA. We discussed too the use of Tradingview.com for charting better and drilling down a stock chart into lower time frame together with the use of trend line. 

Every stock has its own character and identifying this character makes it easy for you to decide which position would you like to hold and at what price level. That is why it is very important that you track the stock that catches your attention on a watch list. You do not need to glue yourself on the monitor for the whole day but at least with your watch list you can easily identify if the stock you are monitoring had created the best possible pattern you are looking for by just glancing on a 30min well-focused review at the end of the day. Once you see it. Fire at will. Daily chart is good but drilling it down into its smaller time frame can help you identify where you can precisely position. The longer time frame is good for identifying the longer trend that will help you win in the longer term. Be familiar of how the candles form during reversals. Once you are good at identifying them, together with your volume analysis it helps a lot in forming a good judgment for a position.

There are 6 hurdles that a trader has to overcome:

  1. Becoming an expert in Technical Analysis, especially reading with charts using the candlestick along with volume analysis.
  2. Controlling one's emotion in dealing with losses and exhilaration of winnings.
  3. Devising one's own strategy without relying on someone else and being able to identify opportunities without the influence of others, be it in the group, forum, herd, suggestions or newsletters.
  4. Enough experience to have that confidence to cut losses quickly, and consistently follow his own trading rules.
  5. The ability to produce his own list based on his own strategy.
  6. The discipline to plan and execute his trade and the same discipline to manage his trade.

Based on the above obstacles, in order to be able to quickly move on to a stage with the entire 6 captured it is but just good to subject new traders to some kind of game that keep them a pace with controlling one's emotion, and managing their trades.

Thus, I introduced Accelotrade on the picture. It is a new site which allow New Traders to have a PEEK of how a stock that is trending in stocktwits.com is being traded, most especially by bots(Artificial Intelligence), join a game in PLAY mode or even create your own game and invite others to play along with you, or even invite bots to join in and see how they will also manage to win in trading. The site also allows you to PRACTICE trading on a particular stock you are interested about  and see for yourself how are you performing before really laying out your actual money in actual trade. 

Accelotrade is in Beta Test mode right now. Probably by next week it will have live data stream. For now, the existing stream is enough for PEEK, PLAY and PRACTICE to get accustomed in trading and getting your hands dirty without spending actual money. There is no sign-up or log-in to the site yet. You can choose your own username that you want. Just a note of caution, if you join a game and you logged-out, you cannot re-join the game again. The same username you will use in logging in will have a new instance, so therefore you will lose control of the previous instance. On the side menu inside the PEEK and PLAY mode there is an icon for Beta testing. Let us support the site by testing it. Once they go live, we have credits for membership. And please give feedback on their short survey. This will help a lot in improving the site.

Have a look at the site and be familiar with it. If you notice something that could probably help in improving it, list them down so we can forward them for inclusion in their updates. I will set-up a game next week that we can join and play along with.

Let me know, if you have a hard time accessing the file I sent you and the Accelotrade game site link.

And here is the link for the review.

Cheers and have a nice weekend.

Jerome

Preliminary Stuff in Stock Trading

Hello everyone,

So here are some preliminary stuff you need to know to advance your Trading skills.
These were the primary steps I did when I started trading on my own.

I opened an INVESTOR’S EDGE ACCOUNT with CIBC, because they gave me a preferential buy and sell rate of $7.00US only as I have my house mortgage with them. This was the first one I ever did opening
1.       RRSP - Registered Retirement Savings Plan. (With this account you can buy and sell shares without being taxed for any capital gains, except when you have to withdraw the amount)
2.       TFSA - Tax Free Savings Account. (With this account you can buy and sell stocks without being tax for any capital gains even if you have to withdraw them. This is an awesome account.
3.       MARGIN account (Used for shorting stocks, since registered accounts are not allowed to short stocks.)
4.       LIRA (This is my Locked-in retirement Fund Account. Usually when you work with a certain company who contributed for your retirement matching up every dollar amount you also contributed by yourself, the account is locked into a certain fund. This fund can never be withdrawn except by the time you retire.)

As soon as I was able to create all those accounts I asked Investor's Edge to facilitate the transfer of my funds from the Mutual Fund companies I used to have all those accounts. It was a seamless transfer of funds institution to institution.

You can do this with Questrade. Do an inventory of your RRSP and TFSA or even LIRA if you have and send a fax or letter to the institution telling them to transfer the funds to your newly created trading accounts. Transaction can only go through if the account you opened is the same. RRSP to RRSP, LIRA to LIRA, TFSA to TFSA.

Things I included in the account. 
1.       Option Trading (Writing Call and Put. Although, not really used it and did not bother using it.)
2.       Access on US and Canadian Equities
3.       Dividend Reinvestment is setup on all accounts.
4.       A single sign-in account to log-on to all accounts.

Resources I used to get information about stocks.

Add-on Apps to install in Iphone/Ipad and other stuff to use.
1.       Bloomberg to monitor your positions and to check for latest news.
2.       Overdrive (sign-up with adobe for free account to sign-in to overdrive) to connect to Library Card. You can borrow electronic books and audios from the library through overdrive.
3.       Candlestick Master. This app helps you master the different kinds of candlestick formation. It has also a game for investing, where in, you will identify if you are going to be long or short of a chosen ticker based on the candlestick formation of the day. You can play this one while you are probably waiting for someone. 
4.       The Motley Fool. I do not believe all they say. I signed-up up only to get some clues for companies I am monitoring. 
5.       Sign-up with BetterInvesting.org ($25.00/year) This will give you insights, graphs and statistical data of companies that are good candidate for investing. I did this on the first year, but I stopped using this, since I have other resources I could use. This company though, has a good track record already of their investments. This can also be a good source for possible companies that are watched closely by investors.
6.       TMXMoney.com to check for Charts, Statements, News, and trends. What I used more of this site is to look for top 50 TSX Ventures company. This was the one that helped me found IPLAYCO, a company that set-up playgrounds. I got in at .75 and sold it at 1.50 when they received a huge contract in Saudi Arabia.
7.       StockCharts.com. I use this site for its free tools especially the candle glance of the different Market Indexes. I use this one too for doing a comparison of a certain stock against its index. This will help you identify possible divergence and strength.
8.       Finviz.com for confirming possible targets, combination strength of technical and fundamentals. For example, if a a stock had just gone New 20 days high or New 50 Days High, or New 78 days high with high volume and I would like to make sure that the move is also sustained with good fundamentals like High percentage EPS and high percentage sales, then the stock is a good candidate for trading especially if it had passed already some of my criteria like breakout from a Volatility Contraction Pattern.
9.       Stockfetcher.com. This is the site that I subscribed to. This is where I created my own script to get me possible listings of stocks I need to watch out, especially those breaking out of New 20 days high, New 50 days high and New 78 days high. If they show the pattern I am looking for I take the list and use it with finviz.com to confirm with other indicators. If I have a good candidate and a good set-up then I will trade with it.
10.      yahoo finance. This is where I check the news of why a certain stock is rocketing or plunging.
11.      otcmarkets.com. This is where I double check the financial statements filed by the companies, News about the company like new CEO or CFO that could make a stock to propel ahead due to insider buying of huge shares. This is also where you can find out if companies have been approved on FDA for their drugs and other related product releases that will usually bring stock surging higher. You can also find out here reports of acquisitions or issuance of dividends that may also fire the move of the stock higher. 
12.        Edgar filings in sec.gov is another very important resource for knowing a company. As long as you avoid Over the counter (OTTC) stocks, filings for a company is always up to date in edgar, except for foreign companies whose filings are allowed every six months. 
13.        stockspinoffs.com. This is where I get listings for spin-off companies like ARNC and AA. When ALCOA (AA) had been spun-off from its mother company ARNC (Arconic) it started with around $22.00 last Nov. 1, 2016 having a candle breaking the 200SMA with a volume of 30M shares and breaking out of previous high when it was ARNC it became a launched pad for it to soar  up to $60.00 in 2 years. I rode up to $40.00 and cashed out. The philosophy of spin-off is that the a huge company has a department or division that is growing so fast and in order for it to be able to magnify its growth they have to take it away from the mother company providing good management that had proven track record but just couldn't grow or expand more due to the cap of the mother company. When this division gets spun-off as another new company, it will rocket itself into a huge winner. If you can capture one of this. It will surely grow your portfolio exponentially.

When a company has a good product, you know it, it has good management, good financial statement and is loved by the people, like people are talking about it. You can ride with its trend. This was what happened with FB, SQ, MOMO, AMD, NVDA and NFLX.
 
Must Read Books:
1.       The Lazy Investor by Derek Foster (Chapters) talking about Dividend Stocks. This guy was my first mentor in deciding to handle everything on my own. I started following his advice on taking into dividend stocks. I still held some stocks with dividends but currently I invested heavily on tech stocks that I knew pretty well.
2.       How I made $2 Million in Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas (Amazon) talking about the now known Darvas Box. If you will learn his theory you could follow him also by using the box method in assessing your positions of the stocks.
3.       The little book that beats the market by Joel Greenblatt (Amazon) . Greenblatt talked about owning shares of high profile companies that have capitalization of more than 50million. His method was simple. Own at least 5 stocks every month on these companies until you end up with 20 to 30 companies on your portfolio in a year. For those stocks showing losses sell them few days before it hits its one year holding period. For those stocks that are winning, sell them few days after its one year holding period. Keep repeating this magic formula every year and keep maintaining that 25 to 30 stocks per year. You keep replacing those that you had sold. I followed this strategy although I deviated a bit on the stocks I am looking forward of holding on longer than 1 year or perhaps stocks that I am looking of profiting only for few days or months.
4.       The Winning Investment Habits of Warren Buffett & George Soros by Mark Tier (Calgary Public Library). This is an exciting read especially with these two stalwarts in investing.
5.       The Warren Buffett Way (Calgary Public Library). 
6.       Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison or alternate from the Library
7.        Trade like a market Wizzard by Mark Minervini. This is my second mentor in trading. His Volatility Contraction Pattern and other screening tool became my core content of the script I made with stockfetcher of which I added with my own twist, strategies from William O'neil and Larry Williams.
8.         You can be a stock market Genius by Joel Greenblatt talking about making money on Spin-Off companies. Sometimes in the last months of 2016 I used this strategy of putting money into spin-off companies like AA and CNDT. I made a mistake actually in my investing rule with CNDT. I placed my money with XRX (Xerox), the mother company instead of CNDT (Conduent Incorporated), the spun-off company. XRX just never took off. It just kept on trending sideways pulling back and forth between high and low  34 and 24, while CNDT took off from $15.00 to $23.00 in less than 2 years.
9.         A complete guide to volume price analysis by Anna Coulling talking about how to decipher a true move and a false move based on the volume strength and the candle's body.
10.       Trade like an O'neil disciple by Chris Cacher talking about stocks breaking up from a sound base and pulling off a trade from an undercut against 10 day moving average on fast moving stock and 50 day moving average on slow moving stock. Added to this is the golden rule of short selling. 

I have a lot more books to share. But for now I think you have more than enough for the time being. I will share with you later on the chart patterns. 

There is another platform that you can sign-up with of which I used for my other RRSP and RESP of my kids. This is the one I mentioned above as questrade.com. you pay only $5.00US for trading buy and sell. So the total you pay round trip is only $10.00. There is just one drawback. When you want to invest on Toronto stocks with shares more than 500 shares you should use a different platform. The reason is. Once you buy Canadian stocks if it is more than 500 shares, the trading fees goes higher up to the max of $13.00 based on the number of shares you buy. Only with Canadian stocks though. In my case, if I want to buy Canadian stocks I use the investors edge of CIBC if I need to position more than 500 shares. But if you trade US stocks there should be no problem at all, only $10.00 round trip.

So far, you have a lot of things to assimilate here. I will just go over with you later on each one of them, so it will be easier to understand.

Cheers.

Jerome
AcceloBud

AUDC - phenomenal rise - Stock Trading Assignment and Study Guide

This is an email I sent to my students.


Hello everyone,

Last January 30, 2019 I posted a blog concerning AUDC comparing it with the move of SPPI (dated Aug. 4, 2017). 

Then around 25 trading days later I posted again another blog with the technical fundamental data on AUDC dated Mar. 5, 2019.

4 trading days ago (Apr. 2, 2019) AUDC hit New 78 Day High again after the 44 Trading Days VCP formation and hitting above $16.00 the next day. 

Based on what I taught of setting your target Price:
TP = (( PH - VL ) * 3 ) + BC
Where:
TP = Target Price
PH = Previous High
VL = VCP Low
BC = Breakout Close

Can you determine what is our target price on this stock?
Where would you position?
Where will be your Stop Loss?
What price levels would be your scale out strategy?
Look on Finviz for the EPS Q/Q and Sales Q/Q as well as Price target.
You can also try to feel ahwat are some of the sentiments of traders on AUDC using stocktwits.com

Look for some of its disclosures. Find any changes of stock positions on key insiders using the following:

Sec Form-3 is for initial ownership, Sec Form-4 is for any changes of that ownership, Sec Form-5 is for any other changes not recorded in Form-4. These forms can be accessed through the following online tools:

1. Sec.gov under Edgar Search Tool.
2. otcmarkets.com - You have to enter the stock ticker into its Quote field and press enter. Then once the stock is listed, you have to click on "Disclosure" from the menu which starts with "Overview | Quote | Company Profile | Security Details | News | Disclosure | Research". This will bring up the list of Forms associated with the company you are searching for. What I like with otcmarkets compared to Edgar Search tool of Sec.gov is that when you click the hyperlink it opens right away as another tab or window in your browser with the documents listed as one which you can scroll all the way down, instead of selecting one by one as with Edgar.  

Cheers and have a good week guys,

Jerome

New 78 Day High - Setting up Price Target - VIRT Simulation 02

This post is a copy of the email I sent out to the day trading students I handled.

Hello guys,

AUDC, TPNL, VIRT
Here is the latest recording of what we have covered earlier. We covered AUDC and TPNL ending up a simulation with VIRT.

SETTING TARGET PRICE 
Please try to remember the formula that I gave you in creating the Target Price

TP = ((PH - VL) * 3) + BC
Where:
TP = Target Price
PH = Previous High
VL = VCP Low or where the last congregation of support lies.
BC = Breakout Close

EXCEL FOR SETTING PROFIT AND LOSS TARGET
I created an excel spreadsheet on this formula which you can check from this link
http://bit.ly/Profit-Loss-Target-Calculator

All you have to do is plug in the data.
Of course you need to be the one to plug in also your stop loss and your price entry.

PRICE ENTRY SET-UP
Most of the time the price entry can be set based on the first red candle you see. Usually red candles would show tail and I would set an entry right at the mid section of the red tail. 

STOP LOSS SET-UP
Stop Loss can be set also to where the last support you could find especially on the a whole number. Any whole number that the breakout candle had broken becomes a new support. Let us say the breakout candle breaks out of price $25.00 and closing at 25.80. The 25.50 and $25.00 become very good support for the price to pullback to. If the price holds on to these levels, you can even add up your position especially if you are confident with the fundamentals of the stock.

PREVIOUS RESISTANCE TURNING SUPPORT
Previous resistance where double tops had formed and had been broken by that breakout candle becomes also the new support of the price to pullback to. Watch out AUDC's breaout from 12.82 where it made a gap up reaching a high of 15.70 last April 2, 2019. After the gap-up there were a lot of selling pressures but they were all dissipated upon reaching 12.82 support, which made some kind of a triple bottom. That triple bottom becomes your cue also of further rise in price. Thus when it broke the VCP 44D-22/7-5T, a huge breakout again occurred.

We used VIRT for our simulation trading only for around 20 days. You can see this game at this link.

Notice that this game has a very huge breakout candle, just like TPNL. The pullback just congregated along a small range between the High and Low of the 1st red candle. Typically you will enter on the mid section of the tail of the red candle. This is done by issuing a buy within a period of time. And just wait for the stock to prove its action. Just like TPNL, Had you entered at 6.95 you already have a huge gain at 9.29 at current price. 

VCP ANATOMY
The VCP for TPNL was 35D-34/9-4T.
35D = 35 Days of VCP
-34 = -34% first contraction
-9 = -9% last contraction at the last touch close to the top hypotenuse side of the triangle.
4T = 4 times contractions
When a VCP reading contracts around  -9%, -7% or -5%. You have to be on high alert, because the price would certainly breakout on this particular range of contraction. The longer the VCP, the higher usually the breakout goes.

FISH HOOK PATTERN
I want you to notice also the kind of pattern this huge breakout creates. Both TPNL and VIRT showed some kind of a fish hook pattern. This kind of pattern is really very potent in long entries.

FUNDAMENTALS TO LOOK FOR
Continue to study the N78 Day High and start pondering on the charts. Look at them and investigate them using the otcmarkets.com, yahoo finance and finviz. A good PR, a good news on revenue, products, installation of new Officers as well as Insider Buy trading, Buy back of shares, Huge Financial Company buying shares or accumulating shares and FDA approval are your strong fundamental support to go long. Look for this clues as you investigate a New 78 Day High with a huge volume and a huge candle.

GAP-UP with HUGE TAIL PATTERN 
There are a lot of instances too that when a gap-up occurs accompanied with a hug volume but the candle formation formed a long wick, meaning huge selling pressure. The stock usually comes down easily but it will almost always come down to close the gap. Once the gap is closed, position on it and you will see that the stock will just sky rocket upward past the gap-up candle. I will show you some of these stocks later on.

For the time being, here is something to review for. 

Homework:
Give me a list of New 78 Day High stocks and tell me some of their fundamentals that would somehow give us the confidence to trade those stocks.

Cheers and have a good weekend guys.



Jerome 

More on Different kind of Trading: Vol High - Prior Vol High Stock Entry - Case on CONL (Granite Shares Trust Granite Shares 2x LON)

CHART: CONL (Granite Shares Trust Granite Shares 2x LON) http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/OeSm5wo7tZ.png https://www.tradingview.com/x...