New 78 Day High and Darvas Box Breakout, espcially with Gap ups and huge volume (ENPH, ARWR, ARQL)

Hello everyone,

Here are the video recordings for the Trading Lessons on New 78 Day High with the Darvas Box Breakout.

2019/06/15 Trading Lesson: New 78 Day High and Darvas Box Breakout

https://youtu.be/oSQMne65bdE

2019/06/21 Trading Lesson: N78 Day High and Nicolas Darvas Theory Part 01

https://youtu.be/G5_YoJKKdZI

2019/06/21 Trading Lesson:  N78 Day High and Nicolas Darvas Theory Part 02

https://youtu.be/tiKbT0-4i24

I just would like to add 2 important considerations here:

1. A combination of New 78 Day High with Darvas B15 associated with 400% increase in volume and a gap up is a potent combination of a winning trade. Darvas B15 here refers to the filter we created in stockfetcher.com which identifies Darvas Boxes boundaries and breakouts to subsequent new highs. The B15, means stocks priced below $15.00.
   
   Examples:
   ENPH - 2019/05/01
   http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/60PqiUdvoG.png
   ARWR - 2019/05/21
   http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/n5w9IXygjI.png
2. Potent Darvas Box formation follows the following pattern:
   Wide Base, Reduced Boxes, longer pop.
   The stock starts with a Wide Base (Longer consolidation period with deeper price fluctuation). Once it starts to break out from that wide base, next upward Darvas boxes are reduced in sizes, meaning the range is getting smaller. Subsequent breakout from this or these smaller ranges with a huge volume will have a longer pop to follow.
   Example: ARWR
   The Base:
           http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/Gp1Nqk4kpE.png
   The Reduced Boxes
           http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/4G6qmpJnXw.png
   The longer Pop
           http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/pxLoM2fw1J.png
   New Base is formed again
           http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/aM69ltiwRD.png
           http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/CR9f7ekpxN.png
   Reduced Box following the Base followed with a Gap-up
           http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/RV20Ewzukf.png

Enjoy studying guys.

Cheers and have a good one.

New 78 Day High with Gap up - ARQL/ENPH

ENPH last May 1, 2019 made a new 78 Day High with a Gap up closing at around $12.80. After 49 days or 34 trading days it had risen above $19.00. Aside from Appearing as New 78 Day High, ENPH at the same time frame made a debut under DARVAS B15 filter of stockfetcher. This is the filter I kept to check for stocks that had made a new high with a huge volume against a previous high contained in a range of highs and lows forming a systematic box where you can determine the fluctuation of a price within a specific level, usually at whole number levels of support and resistance. This box theory was developed by Nicolas Darvas who liked to exploit on the momentum of a stock.

http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/r41uHENvbz.png

ARQL made a gap up last march 7, 2019 reaching a high of $6.00, consolidating around 4.60 for around 21 days and made another gap up on Jun 14, 2019 and June 17, 2019 reaching a high above $9.00. This seemed to be in a perfect timing for a buy. See ENPH when it made a gap up. It looks like the pattern is repeating on ARQL.
See entry on ARWR when it made a gap-up. Check the blog "New 78 Day High - Gap-up on Big Volume - ARWR Simulation"


The main catalyst of ARQL are the following:

1. June 22, 2018 it had been added to Russel 2000 Index at the price of around $4.75
2. Made a Triple Top at 6.50
3. Broke down 200EMA and went as low as $2.25 Dec. 24, 2018
4. Broke out of 200EMA and $6.00 resistance with a huge candle and huge volume, doubling its volume from previous volume before it got listed on Rusell 2000 Index.
5. Revenue increased from 0 to 2.9M from Dec. 2017 to Dec. 2018.
6. 2 Successful on-going clinical trials on ARQ 531 and ARQ 092 (These are the news when it gained 44% and 21% on 2 succeeding days June 14, 2019 and June 17, 2019.

Here is the Chart of ARQL:
http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/1oyo3iEtRN.png

TRADING MINOLA ON NEO and EVRI with strong Net Income and Revenue

June 10, 2019 Monday

TRADING MINOLA ON NEO & EVRI + Net Income/Revenue Catalyst

As I was reviewing a particular stock called NEO, I happened to noticed that I had blogged this stock twice.

1. NEO hitting MINOLA on Stockfetcher published Nov. 7, 2018
2. NEO hitting MINOLA and hot to position for Entry using the Previous High Volume, published March 1, 2019.

Review on MINOLA:

MINOLA is the term I used for the combination of strategy taken from the best traders.

1. MIN - stands for MINERVINI, of Mark Minervini who popularized the  SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) and VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) strategy entry.
2. O - stands for O'Neil of William O'Neil who popularized the Pocket Pivot.
3. LA - stands for Larry of the ADX(14) Larry William strategy.

I combined these 3 elements into 1 single filter of stockfetcher to be able to get me extract of stocks hitting MINOLA point where all the elements from the 3 Masters converged.

The MINOLA Filter on Stockfetcher:

This is how the filter looks like of which I added my own marked with /*Noel J*/. As you can see the filter had evolved over time of which I added more element taken from Mark Shipman, although I did not add his name on the Filter Name I created.

/*BEGINNING OF FILTER*/

/*Minervine SEPA (Specific Entry Point Analysis) combined with O'Neil Pocket Pivot and ADX(14) of Larry Williams*/ 

Show stocks 

/*CURRENT volume is 150% or higher above avg vol(10) 10 day ago*/

CURRENT volume is more than double from previous day volume /*O'Neil*/

where close reached a new 20 days high           /*Larry*/

and Close divided by 260 day low is above 1.25  /*Minervine*/

and Close divided by 260 day high is above 0.75 /*Minervine*/

and CURRENT Volume is more than 200000         /*Noel J*/

and the price is between .5 and 30             /*Noel J*/

and RSI(^SPX,14) > 69                       /*Minervine*/

and draw MA(10)        

and draw MA(20)    

and do not draw ema(18)

and draw MA(50)

and do not draw ema(50)

and draw MA(200)

and MA(200) is increasing for 1 month or more   /*O'Neil*/

and ADX(14) > 20                                /*L.Williams like 30 with Price touching MA(20)*/

and MA(30) is above MA(50)        /*Added Nov.7,2016 Strategy of Mark Shipman

                                                  Big Money Little Effort

                                                  A Winning Strategy for Profitable Long-Term Investment*/

and add column RMI(10,1)

and add column RSI(^SPX,90)

Chart-time 6 months 

/*END OF FILTER*/

The MINOLA Strategy

I will not be explaining the meaning of the filter here, but I will be laying down the Strategy of how to trade once a certain stock reached its first MINOLA point. 

MINOLA Pattern 1 "Huge Pocket on  40 Trading Days + 400% + Vol after 11 Trading Days"

Sample: NEO (MINOLA: Oct. 26, 2018 , 400%+ Vol:  Jan 11, 2019, MINOLA: 2019/03/01)

Catalyst:
       2018/08/06 10Q comparing 2018 vs 2017 2 months before MINOLA:

          Revenue: 67M vs 62M
          Net Income: 5.9M vs -2.1M

        2018/11/05 10Q after MINOLA

          Revenue: 63M vs -3.9M

          Net Income: 2M vs -4.3M
Entry: Close of the 2nd Day after 400% + Volume Spike

MINOLA Pattern 2 "400% + Volume after 15 Trading Days, Vol Breakout on N78 Volume" 

Sample: EVRI (N78: Sep. 13, 2018, MINOLA: Feb 20, 2019, 400%Vol+ : Mar. 13, 2019)

Catalyst:
        2018/08/07 10Q: 2018 vs 2017
           Income: 6M vs -22.5M
           Revenue: 118M vs 242M
        2018/11/06 10Q  2018 vs 2017
           Net Income: 8.1M vs -26.8M
           Revenue: 65M vs 55M

Entry: Close of the 2nd Day after the 400% + Volume Spike