Friday, March 23, 2018

DropBox IPO Debut and the lesson you can use from FB, SNAP, BABA and SQ

One of the famous internet shared space for common people and even to offices of big companies is the so called DropBox. The company had grown so big now as to make itself into a public company. It had just its public debut today opening at $29.00 and reaching a high of $31.60 but pulled as low as $27.84. This is amidst the news of facebook having its 50 million user profile harvested illegally by Cambridge Analytica  used for political fake news propaganda. The scandal had brought a sell-off frenzy among the scared and angry users which also reverberated among the other social media giants like google, twitter,  and even tesla had been affected too. Elon Musk even released a tweet of deleting his Tesla and Space X Facebook pages with 2.6 million followers. That's why DropBox CEO Drew Houston was trying to state in his address "user trust".

And here's the chart of the new IPO.

SNAP in its public debut went as high as 26.5 from it's $24.00 opening price. It went down as low as $23.50 and closed at $24.48. The next day it went as high as  $29.44 and went down all the way to $11.28 within 6 months time. That is where it bottomed for another 6months until it went back up to a high of $21.22. We might be seeing the same scenario with Dropbox here.



The huge gap-up of SNAP on Feb. 7, 2018 was fuelled by the turn around of its profitability. The sell-off after this gap-up is probably caused by those who had bought previously at the waterfalls of the price and would just like to get rid of SNAP stocks. The Market Maker will have to absorb all these until this gap would probably close before the stock can hit its gas to pump up higher. One of the article of yahoo today was actually telling investors to learn from facebook, alibaba and square before starting to buy dropbox. And that would be the same thing I would do. Maybe the best play you can do for now with dropbox is actually on the short side for 6 months. This would be a nice gain on the downside.

BABA on the other hand from it's public debut of a high of $92.70 went down after 12 days to as low as $82.81 then came back up to hit a high of $120 for the next 20 days. From there onward it just went as low as $58.00 for the next 11months. Then it rose to as high as $86.35 but then went back down to $59.25 for the next 4months forming the double bottom Feb. 9, 2016. It was from this time onward that it started rising and never looked back hitting as high as  $200.00.

Here are the charts of Baba.






And here are the charts of SQUARE. Square is much the same as with the rest too. It went down twice as low as $8.27. This low had been tested 4x, confirming the bottom. It was from there that it started picking up and never looked back reaching a high of $58.46





IPOs like this always tanked to the price the investors are willing to start holding. Based on my observation. After the bottom like double bottom formation it will start to rally and form a VCP (Volatility Contraction pattern) where the price merge slowly in the middle for few months and then breaks with a Gap up and huge volume or after a small breakout it is till followed with a Gap up and a hug volume with price breaking the 200SMA. Then the 4 simple moving average will line up parallel to each other. The 30SMA above the 50SMA, then 150SMA below the 50SMA with the 200SMA all below the rest of the other SMAs.






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