New 78 Day High - Gap-up on Big Volume - ARWR Simulation

New 78 Day High - Gap-up on Big Volume - ARWR Simulation May 9, 2018

This is a simulation of the New 78 Day High which happened last May 9, 2018 with ARWR.
The following are Rules to follow in order to play this New 78 Day High.

1. Price had broken out of 200EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
2. Price Retested 200EMA.
3. Made 2 Previous High Break-out
4. The New 78 Day High is the Break-out on the 3rd Previous High.
5. 200EMA is on uptrend
6. 50EMA becomes the support upward
7. Volume of New 78 Day High is more than double than any volume of the last 30 days.

In our example ARWR:

1. Had broken 200EMA on Aug 24, 2017, after 15 days of reporting a Revenue growth of 23,846% from 39K of 2016 to 9.3M in 2018.
2. Price retested the 200EMA on Dec. 13, 2017 1 day after reporting a Revenue growth of 19,620%.
3. Made 2 previous break-out before May 9, 2018.
   Jan. 3, 2018 broke $4.50 H1 high.
   Mar. 5, 2018 broke $6.50 H2 high.
4. The break-out of May 9, 2018 is the break-out from $7.99 H3 high.
5. The 200EMA from Aug 24, 2017 break-out had been trending upward to May 9, 2018.
6. The price pullbacks of ARWR had been supported by 50EMA all the way up.
7. Volume of New 78 Day High is more than double than any volume of the last 30 days.

ARWR TRADINGVIEW 1 YR CHART with Target Price

SETTING THE TARGET PRICE WHEN ENTERING THE TRADE:
We use the following formula to set our Target Price:
TP = (( PH - VL ) * 3 ) + BC
Where:

• TP = Target Price
• PH = Previous High
• VL = VCP Low
• VCP = Volatility Contraction Pattern (Triangular contraction of Price)
• BC = Break-out Close

Based from the chart we can substitute the values in our formula:

TP = (( 8.00 - 6.50 ) * 3 ) + 9.00

TP = $13.50

Our Target Price is set to $13.50. As you can see the target is hit. But what we usually do as well other than just setting the target is how to scale out the trade such that going up you place money into your pocket. Also, when the plan does not materialize, what is our Stop Loss so we can exit taking a loss and move to another trade.

SETTING ENTRY TARGET:

Based on the fundamentals of the stock, the previous highs created by ARWR were actually accompanied with very strong revenue jump. 

1. ARWR had broken 200EMA on Aug 24, 2017, after 15 days of reporting a Revenue growth of 23,846% from 39K of 2016 to 9.3M in 2018.
2. Its Price retested the 200EMA on Dec. 13, 2017 1 day after reporting a Revenue growth of 19,620%. Then after that retest it jumped 

These 2 fundamentals gave us the confidence other than the technical set-up that give us the New 78 Day High. And to set our entry, we just need to follow the 1st red day from the moment of break-out. On the 4th day, May 14, 2018 after the break-out we had a red candle. This is the first pull-back. What usually happens, this red candle becomes the price point for entry. You can take the mid-body of that candle as your entry. Buy shares on this price level within probably 4 weeks time. And just wait for it to get hit. Sometimes, the hit happens right away and you are in. In this case the mid-body is $9.69 or $9.70. 

SCALING OUT YOUR TRADE:

Once you are in the trade, make sure to scale out. Plan to take some money off from the table. If our Target is $13.50. You can scale out at 10.00, 11.00, 12.00 or 13.00. These are whole number resistance and support. If you have a small amount of shares purchased, just let it ride. If you bought a lot of shares, make sure to take money from the table.

STOP LOSS

Never work on the trade without a planned stop loss. It's nice to have a hard stop loss, but the downside of this is that Market Maker sees all these stop loss orders and will always try to take them out. Thus, the better strategy is to set it mentally. And if the plan does not materialize exit based on your mental stop loss. In this case our Stop Loss with our entry at 9.70 would be 9.45 or if you can stretch it to 8.00 which was the whole number break-out. Try to limit your losses within 5-7% out of your total trade. That's why it is important to enter on pullbacks because you are sure that you entered at a quite lower price level that entering when it is skyrocketing.

ACCOMPANYING VIDEO LESSON USING Accelotrade for simulation on ARWR.

http://bit.ly/N78-GapUp-BigVolume-ARWR

ARWR TRADINGVIEW 1 YR CHART hitting Target Price

ARWR TRADINGVIEW 1 YR CHART from Target Price to huge drop

 ARWR TRADINGVIEW 1 YR CHART with pulling back to 200EMA

ARWR FROM STOCKFETCHER.COM 1 YR CHART - Revival Pattern

ARWR FROM STOCKFETCHER.COM 1YR CHART - New 78 Day High

Double Day New 78 Day High - INS

May 23, 2019
I was trying to offset my New 78 Day High filter on Stockfetcher back tracking 261 days ago, and I found a gem called INS. This stock may have gone from the radar of most traders because it was trading on less than 50K shares. The highest peak it had was Jan. 6, 2017. Then after 1 year and 4 months it made a New 78 Day High with a volume of only a meager  21.5K on May 9, 2018 . But what was surprising is it made again another High the next day with a volume 469% higher than the previous high. For 10.9 years the price had always been $5.00. The New day 78 Day high with just 21.5K trading volume had made a high of 6.24 breaking out $5.00 and $6.00. Then the following day with the volume of 100.9K shares made a new high of 7.64. It did pull back at 6.50 after 5 days but after that it never looked back reaching a high of $48.89 for exactly 365 days (1 year), that's 783% increase. Currently it is standing at 543.26%.

Stock Market Index Symbols used in Stockfetcher

Sometimes it is good to pull up the chart of an index so you can compare your stock against the over-all run of the market. Stocks that shows strong divergence when index is going down and it is holding up its price higher, then such stock is a candidate for buying. The opposite would the shorting case also. Larry Williams is the one who popularize this method. But before doing that digernce comparison it would be good to know what the symbols of those indices.

Stockfetcher.com has the following entry which can be found on this help link, https://help.stockfetcher.com/sfhelp/?id=100229

^VIX	CBOE Volatility Index
^ADR	INT L MKT INDX
^ADRA	AMEX ADVANCE/DECLINE RATIO
^ADRD	OTC ADVANCE/DECLINE RATIO^i
^ADRN	NYSE ADVANCE/DECLINE RATIO
^ADRQ	NASD ADVANCE/DECLINE RATIO
^ADVA	AMEX ADVANCING SHARES
^ADVD	OTC ADVANCING SHARES
^ADVN	NYSE ADVANCING SHARES
^ADVQ	NASD ADVANCING SHARES
^AMZ	ALERIAN MLP INDEX
^BCMM	BARCHART MARKET MOMENTUM
^BKX	KBW BANK INDEX
^RUA	Russell 3000 Index
^BTK	BIOTECH INDEX
^VXD	CBOE DJIA VOLATILITY INDEX
^BWH	POWERSHARES WILDERHILL CLEAN EN
^BXD	CBOE DJIA BUYWRITE INDEX
^BXM	CBOE BUYWRITE MONTHLY INDEX
^BXN	CBOE BUYWRITE MONTHLY INDEX
^BXR	CBOE RUSSELL 2000 BUYWRITE INDE
^SPX	S & P 500
^BXY	CBOE S& P 500 BUYWRITE INDEX
^CEX	S& P CHEMICALS INDEX
^IXIC	NASDAQ Composite
^CKG	S&P 600 BARRA GRWTH
^OEX	S & P 100
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^CVK	SMCP 600BARR VAL
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^DDA	DJIA VOLATILITY INDEX - OFFER S
^DDB	DJIA VOLATILITY INDEX - BID SID
^DDX	DISK DRIVE NDX
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^DECD	OTC DECLINING SHARES
^DECN	NYSE DECLINING SHARES
^DECQ	NASD DECLINING SHARES
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^DSAL	DJ US ALUMINUM
^DSAM	DJ US MEDEQUIP
^DSAP	DJ US AUTOPARTS
^DSAR	DJ US AIRLINES
^DSAS	DJ US AEROSPACE
^DSAT	DJ US AUTOPARTS
^DSAU	DJ US AUTOMOBILE
^DSAV	DJ US MEDIAAGN
^DSBC	DJ US BRDCASTENT
^DSBD	DJ US BLDGMATFIX
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^DSCE	DJ US CONSELECT
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^DSCG	DJ US TRAVLEIS
^DSCH	DJ US CHEMICALS
^DSCL	DJ US COAL
^DSCM	DJ US PERSPROD
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^DSFN	DJ US FINANCIALS
^DSFO	DJ US FOODPRODRS
^DSFP	DJ US FOODPRDCTS
^DSFR	DJ US FORESTPAPR
^DSFT	DJ US FOOTWEAR
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^DSGT	DJ US GENRETAIL
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^DSHI	DJ US HMIMPRETL
^DSHN	DJ US NDURHLDPRD
^DSHP	DJ US HLTHCRPVDR
^DSHR	DJ US COMRVEHTRK
^DSHV	DJ US HVYCONS
^DSIB	DJ US INSBROKERS
^DSID	DJ US DVSFINDUS
^DSIF	DJ US FLLINEINS
^DSIG	DJ US INDGDS&SRV
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^DSIN	DJ US INDSTRIALS
^DSIP	DJ US PROPCASINS
^DSIQ	DJ US INDSTENGNG
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^DSIS	DJ US SUPPORTSRV
^DSIT	DJ US INDSTTRANS
^DSIU	DJ US REINSURAN
^DSIV	DJ US BUSSUPSRV
^DSIX	DJ US NLIFEINSUR
^DSLE	DJ US LEISGOODS
^DSLG	DJ US HOTELS
^DSLW	DJ US LOWCAP
^DSMC	DJ US HCREQPSRV
^DSME	DJ US MEDIA
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^DSMS	DJ US MDSUPPLIES
^DSMT	DJ US MARTRANSPT
^DSMU	DJ US MULUTILTES
^DSNC	DJ US CONSUMGDS
^DSNF	DJ US NONFERMET
^DSNG	DJ US PERHLDGDS
^DSNS	DJ US INTERNET
^DSOE	DJ US ELECOFFEQP
^DSOG	DJ US OILGAS
^DSOI	DJ US OILEQPSRV
^DSOL	DJ US INTGOILGAS
^DSOQ	DJ US OILEQPSRV
^DSOS	DJ US EXPLPROD
^DSPB	DJ US PUBLISHING
^DSPC	DJ US WSTDSPSRV
^DSPG	DJ US PERSGOODS
^DSPL	DJ US PIPELINES
^DSPM	DJ US GOLDMNG
^DSPN	DJ US PHARMBIO
^DSPP	DJ US PAPER
^DSPR	DJ US PHARMCTCLS
^DSPT	DJ US PLTPRECMET
^DSRA	DJ US APPRLRET
^DSRB	DJ US BRDLNRET
^DSRD	DJ US DRUGRET
^DSRH	DJ US RESTHLDG
^DSRI	DJ US RESTINVTR
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^DSRR	DJ US RAILROADS
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^DSRU	DJ US RESTRBARS
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^DSSC	DJ US SEMCNDCTRS
^DSSD	DJ US SOFTDRINKS
^DSSF	DJ US CONSUMFIN
^DSSP	DJ US SPECIALFIN
^DSST	DJ US STEEL
^DSSV	DJ US SFTCPTRSRV
^DSSW	DJ US SOFTWARE
^DSTB	DJ US TOBACCO
^DSTC	DJ US TECHNOLOGY
^DSTK	DJ US TRUCKING
^DSTL	DJ US TELECOM
^DSTP	DJ US TOPCAP
^DSTQ	DJ US TECHHRDEQ
^DSTR	DJ US TIRES
^DSTS	DJ US TRANSSRV
^DSTT	DJ US TRVLTOUR
^DSTY	DJ US TOYS
^DSUO	DJ US GASWTRMUT
^DSUT	DJ US UTILITIES
^DSVN	DJ US DISVINTNER
^DSWC	DJ US MOBTELECOM
^DSWU	DJ US WATER
^DTCI	DJ COMPREIT TR
^DTEI	DJ EQUITYREIT TR
^DTWC	DJ COMPAVGTR
^DTWI	DJ INDUS AVG TR
^DTWT	DJ TRANSAVGTR
^DTWU	DJ UTILITYAVGTR
^DUSL	DJ US LRGCAP
^DUSM	DJ US MIDCAP
^DUSS	DJ US SMLCAP
^DWE	DYNAMIC ENERGY EXPLORATION & PR
^DWJ	DYNAMIC INSURANCE INTELLIDEX
^DWO	DYNAMIC OIL SERVICES INTELLIDEX
^DWR	DYNAMIC RETAIL INTELLIDEX
^DWU	DYNAMIC UTILITIES INTELLIDEX
^DWY	DYNAMIC TELECOMMUNICATION & WIR
^DXS	SPADE DEFENSE
^DXY	DOLLAR INDEX
^DYH	DYNAMIC TOP 200 INTELL
^DYI	$MKT INTELLIDEX
^DYO	OTC INTELLIDEX
^DZC	DYNAMIC SOFTWARE INTELLIDEX
^DZE	DYNAMIC SEMICONDUCTOR INTELLIDE
^DZF	DYNAMIC FOOD & BEVERAGE INTELLI
^DZH	DYNAMIC HARDWARE & CONS ELEC IN
^DZL	DYNAMIC LEISURE&ENTERTAINMENT I
^DZM	DYNAMIC MEDIA INTELLIDEX
^DZN	DYNAMIC NETWORKING INTELLIDEX
^DZO	DYNAMIC BIOTECH & GENOME INTELL
^DZR	DYNAMIC PHARMACEUTICAL INTELLID
^ECO	WH CLEAN ENERGY
^EED	CLAYMORE BRIC ETF IOPV
^EMX	MER LYN EURO NDX
^EPX	SIG OIL EXPLORATION & PRODUCERS
^ESX	SEL EURO 50 NDX
^EUX	MAJR 11 INTL NDX
^EVZ	CBOE EURO CURR VOL IND
^EZB	DYNAMIC BS MT INTELLIDEX
^EZF	DYNAMIC FINCL INTELLIDEX
^EZK	DYNAMIC ENRGY INTELLIDEX
^EZL	DYNAMIC INDUS INTELLIDEX
^EZS	DYNAMIC CN ST INTELLIDEX
^EZV	DYNAMIC TECHN INTELLIDEX
^EZX	DYNAMIC HLTHC INTELLIDEX
^EZZ	DYNAMIC CN DS INTELLIDEX
^FBV	POWERSHRS DB G10 FD IOPV
^FVX	5-YEAR TREASURY NOTE
^GDM	AMEX GOLD MINERS
^GLI	MER LYN GBL MKT
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^GNX	GSCI TOTAL RETURNS
^GVZ	GSTI SERVICES INDEX SETTLEMENT
^GWI	M LYNCH SPDR
^HGX	HOUSING INDEX
^HIGA	AMEX NEW HIGHS
^HIGD	OTC NEW HIGHS
^HIGN	NYSE NEW HIGHS
^HIGQ	NASD NEW HIGHS
^HKO	H.K. OPT [FLTNG]
^HKX	H.K. 30 WARRANTS
^HUI	GOLD BUGS NDX
^HVX	MKT VECTOR ENV SERV IOPV
^HWI	COMP HARDWR
^ICK	ISE CHINDIA INDEX
^IDX	S&P MIDCAP 400
^IEB	DYNAMIC LARGE CAP INTELL
^IEK	DYNAMIC MID CAP INTELL
^IEY	DYNAMIC SMALL CAP INTELL
^IIB	SEMI INDS PLUS
^ILH	DYN LGCP GRO
^ILJ	DYN MDCP GRO
^ILK	DYN SMCP GRO
^ILP	DYN MDCP VAL
^ILR	DYNAMIC AGR GRWTH INTLDX
^ILU	DYNAMIC DEEP VAL INTELDX
^ILW	DYN LGCP VAL
^ILZ	DYN SMCP VAL
^INDU	DOW JONES INDU
^INX	S&P 500 INDEX
^IQX	S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT
^IQY	S&P SMALLCAP 600
^IQZ	S&P 1000
^IRX	13-WEEK TREASURY BILL
^IUX	RUSSELL 2000
^IUXX	NASDAQ 100
^IXB	INDEX IXB
^IXE	ENERGY SELECT
^IXF	NDAQ FINANCIAL 100
^IXI	NMS INDUSTRIAL
^IXM	FINL SELECT
^IXR	CONSUMER STAPLE
^IXT	TECHNOLOGY SEL
^IXU	UTILITIES SEL
^IXV	HLTH CARE SEL
^IXY	CONSM.SELECT
^JKC	ML LONG/SHRT III
^JPN	JAPAN INDEX
^KIX	KBW INSURANCE INDEX
^KLX	MKT VECTORS STEEL IOPV
^KRX	KBW REGIONAL BANKING INDEX
^KSX	KBW CAP MRKTS
^LOWA	AMEX NEW LOWS
^LOWD	OTC NEW LOWS
^LOWN	NYSE NEW LOWS
^LOWQ	NASD NEW LOWS
^MBO	CHINESE MPS BSKT
^MDO	MID OPN/CLS AVGE
^MFX	KBW MORTGAGE FINANCE INDEX
^MGD	MIDCP 400BARRA
^MIA	MID O/C/H/L AVG
^MID	MIDCAP 400 IDX
^MIH	MID HI/LO AVGE
^MIV	MID-CAP SETTLE
^MLO	MER LYN TECH 100
^MMX	MAJOR MARKET INDEX
^MNG	AMEX MINI-NATURAL GAS INDEX
^MSH	M STAN HI TECH
^MUV	MDCP 400BAR VAL
^MXY	MEXICO INDEX
^NASX	NASDAQ COMPOSITE
^NBI	NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY [DRM]
^NFA	CTS FEED FA
^NQGM	NDAQ GLOBAL MARKET COMPOSITE
^NSHD	NYSE SHARES DECLINES
^NSHR	NYSE ADVANCE DECLINES RATIO
^NSHU	NYSE ADVANCES DECLINES
^NVLD	NYSE VOLUME DECLINES
^NVLU	NYSE VOLUME ADVANCES
^NWX	NETWORK INDEX
^NYA	NYSE COMPOSITE
^OOI	S&P GL 100 ID
^OSX	OIL SERVICE
^OVX	CBOE CRUDE OIL VOLATILITY INDEX
^PHN	AMEX TELECOM
^RAG	RUSSELL 3000 GRO
^RAV	RUSSELL 3000 VAL
^RDG	RUSSELL MDCP GRO
^RLG	RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH INDEX
^RLV	RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDEX
^RMC	RUSSELL MIDCAP
^RMV	RUSSELL MDCP VAL
^RMZ	THE MSCI REIT INDEX
^RPE	ELEC PWR NATG
^RTF	RUSSELL TOP 50 INDEX
^RUF	ISE HOMEBUILDERS INDEX
^RUI	RUSSELL 1000
^RUJ	RUSSELL 2000 VAL
^RUO	RUSSELL 2000 GRO
^RVX	CBOE RUSSELL 2000 VOLATILITY IN
^SIN	ISE SINDEX INDEX
^SIS	SEMICOND IDX
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^SUNI	MAC GLOBAL SOLAR INDEX
^SVO	PHLX SIG ENERGY MLP INDX
^TICK	NYSE TICK
^TICX	NYSE TICK
^TIKI	DOW TICK
^TIKX	DOW TICK
^TNX	10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE
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^UTIL	DOW JONES UTIL
^UTY	UTILITY INDEX
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^VXO	CBOE OEX VOLATILITY INDEX
^VXV	CBOE S&P 500 3M VOLATILITY INDEX
^WMX	ISE WALMART SUPLR INDEX
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^XAU	GOLD/SILVER INDX
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^XTC	N.A. TELECOM NDX
^ZAX	ZACKS MICRO CAP INDEX
^ZOC	CBOE TECHNOLOGY INDEX REDUCED L