Tuesday, May 14, 2019

New 78 Day High - Revenue increasing Year over Year - Price Drop - AUDC vs MOMO

A CLOSER LOOK ON AUDC's move April 30, 2019 having similarity with MOMO's drop and turn around last Nov. 8, 2016.

Sometimes, you need to wonder why would a stock price come down in value when all fundamentals are right? I am looking at AUDC. Last April 2, 2019 it had made a new high, marking a New 78 Day High breaking out its previous high of $14.94 to $15.70. The stock made a run above $17.00 and in 5 days time just got hammered hard down to almost $13.50. From $15.70 it had risen 11% then all of a sudden dropped to -21.8%. The funny thing is, the drop falls on to the report of AUDC that the company is increasing in revenue Year over Year by 9%.

This particular chart formation made me remember the move I followed with MOMO. Last Nov. 8, 2016 MOMO exhibited also a New high then had a News release that its revenue was increasing year over year by 300%. There was a huge drop which lasted around 91 days before it had a clear breakout on Feb 8, 2017 from the close of the huge red candle drop last Nov. 8, 2016. Before that breakout, the price dipped down to $17.23 on Dec. 20, 2016 doubling the height of the 1st huge red candle, before turning the price up again.

Why would a stock move this way? Smart Money had already made a lot of gain upon reaching a New High. All they can do now is collect what they made and start picking up more shares when they feel the price is about right for them to buy more. Knowing that a company is making a good return, then they are a lot safer if they will buy more at a cheaper price. The Market Maker knowing the move of the Smart Money will start shaking the tree to scare small time investors and force them to relinquish their shares. By doing so, the Market Maker will have collections of shares to offer to Smart Money when it start its buying spree again. Of course you just need to be patient here. The Smart Money has all the patience in the world since it has all the huge capital and the backing of the Market Maker.

If you look at MOMO after breaking out at $23.15, the close of the huge red candle, it skyrocketed to $46.00 in 103 days, with a gain of 98%. This is a magnificent gain.

Now if we compare this kind of move to AUDC, then probably the stock may also have the same pattern based on their similar fundamental run. Although it is only 9% revenue increase year over year for AUDC, the company itself had a terrific progress, that's why they even started buying back shares. The company made money. But the Smart Money of course would like to position itself in the cheapest way possible to get more out of its capital, while the Market Maker is there to serve the Smart Money.

Look at the similarity of the charts of these two companies MOMO (2016/11/08) and AUDC (2019/04/30) .





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