The scenario:
- Aug 10, 2016 Heavy Sell out from a high of 6.90 to a low of 5.61. Huge red candle and huge red volume amounting to 3.73M shares.
- Price dipped to the low of 3.20.
- Feb 10, 2017 Price broke out above 200ema but with small volume.
- Price continued to rise up to a high of 6.80 but got slapped back when it hits that SUPPLY 1 / RESISTANCE 1 level. This is the previous high when it dropped heavily last Aug. 10, 2016 with a volume of 3.73M.(See #1)
- It found support at 5.72 on a thin volume on Mar 9, 2017. This support is where the demand level is found. This is when the price broke out of the previous low of Aug, 10, 2016 on its large bearish candle. (See #1)
- March 17, 2017 a huge volume came popping up but surprisingly with just a small candle. This is our first Anomaly.
- April 20, 2017 Price breaks out of 6.80 with a bit of volume at 1.75M, but not enough as to break out the 3.73M of Aug. 10, 2016. If this would be a true breakout, the breakout volume (B/O Vol) should exceed the red Drop Volume (Drop Vol) of Aug. 10, 2016. This is the second anomaly. The breakout may run only for few days just to hit RESISTANCE 2 or SUPPLY 2, the previous high at 7.65. Smart Money is not buying at this level yet.
- We created a Channel by connecting all the Highs and the Lows of SPPI starting from its lowest low. (See Upper and Lower Channel). We expect a resistance at at Supply 2 level around 7.65. Rounding this to quarters, the resistance would be around 7.75, which could rest just right at the upper channel. Since the Smart Money is not buying at this level, Market Maker will be forced to shake the tree and create a scare or sting to the retail investors and collect again the shares for the possible heavy demand of Smart Money at a Retest Level.
- Possible level Smart Money are waiting for a retest.
- Since we know that there are anomalies of the bullies volumes and candles, we could say that the bullish run from the breakout might last only for few days and get slapped at Supply 2. Entering at 7.00 and putting at stop 25cent below it with a profit target up to Supply 2 / Resistance 2.
- We will reverse our move once we see a triple top at 7.75 and short the stock with a target on the Retest Level.
- We can also avoid #2 if you do not like shorting stock. You can join the Smart Money in buying wholesale at RETEST LEVEL.
Go to accelotrade.com and create your game to test your ability in trading this scenario. If you haven't have any account yet with Accelotrade, just register, it is for free right now.
Here is the setting when creating the game:
We are creating 2 games here.
- SPPI_JRTraders_PriceVolAnomaly_01 (30days, April 20, 2017
- SPPI_JRTraders_PriceVolAnomaly_02 (130 days, May 20, 2017)