BLFS - W Pattern after fall - Increased Revenue - Huge Volume Breakout

BLFS - BioLife Science Solutions

Website: https://www.biolifesolutions.com/

Company Information based on Finviz:

BioLife Solutions, Inc. is a manufacturer and supplier of bioproduction tools for the cell and gene therapy industry in North America, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and other parts of the world. It's products are utilized for biologic-based therapies. Its main strength is the proprietary biopreservation of media products. Products include HypoThermosol FRS and CryoStor that are formulated to mitigate preservation-induced, delayed-onset cell damage and death; and the ThawSTAR line that includes automated vial and cryobag thawing products that control the heat and timing of the thawing process of biologic materials. The company also provides evo shipping containers that are cloud-connected passive storage and transport containers for temperature-sensitive biologics and pharmaceuticals; and liquid nitrogen laboratory freezers, cryogenic equipment, and accessories. The company markets and sells its products directly, as well as through third party distributors. BioLife Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Bothell, Washington.

CHARTS:

1 Decade Weekly Chart of BLFS by BigCharts.com

In the longer term, the oscillation is between $10.00 and $20.00 If that oscillation goes acute towards the $15.00 and breaks out with a huge volume, then we are up for a big bull run.

CURRENT CHART OF BLFS on TradingView.com

Observations from the Charts above:

1. March 20 - Sep 20, 2019 Double Top formation at $21.000 which dropped the price significantly down to $15.00.
2. Nov. 12, 2019 MA50 Crossed below MA200. Signal for reversal to downside.
3. March 12, 2020, a bottom seemed to have been reached at around $7.37 of which investors tried to pick up small quantities of buys.
4. May 4, 2020, Price crossed above MA50 with a small volume but quite a strong price move. 
5. May 15, 2020, Rally in small volume continued with price crossing above MA200. 
6. July 1, 2020 MA50 crossed above MA200.
7. Jul 2, 2020 Huge candle with huge volume at 800% than normal volume. The large candle engulfed all other previous candles. Breakout from previous high of 17.30 occurred.     
8. A "W" pattern can be detected from Mar 12, 2020 to May 13, 2020 with all lows going higher. 

All of the above observations are strong bullish signals. We have therefore here a stock which had been beaten during the pandemic of Covid-19 but is now reviving.

FEW FUNDAMENTALS based on News and Press Releases.

1. 2020/05/13 Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) = 816.68% and ranked as ZACH #3. This came up in Yahoo Finance Zach article on May 13, 2020 "Why Earnings Season could be great for BioLife Solutions (BLFS)". BioLife Solutions is seeing favorable earnings estimate revision activity as of late, which is generally a precursor to earnings beat.
   
   The most accurate estimate for the current quarter of BLFS is currently at 4 cents per share compared to broader Zack consensus estimate of break even earnings. This new estimate suggests that analysts have bumped up their estimates for BLFS, giving the stock a Zack Earnings ESP of +816.68% heading into earnings season.
   
   A positive reading for Zacks Earnings ESP has proven to be very powerful in producing both positive surprises, and outperforming the market. Zach 10 year backtest shows that stocks that have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zack Rank #3 (Hold) or better show a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and give a return of over 28% on average in annual returns.
   
2. The same article in Yahoo Finance from Zack mentioned BLFS as "The Hottest Tech Mega-Trend of All." It went on to say "Last year, it generated $24 billion in global revenues. By 2020, it's predicted to blast through the roof to $77.6 billion. Famed investor Mark Cuban says it will produce "the world's first trillionaires," but that should still leave plenty of money for regular investors who make the right trades early."
   
   My comment on this article is that the revenue of BLFS on year 2019 did not really account to 24B. It was increased however to $27.4M compared to $19.7M of year 2018. A gain of 39% year over year. This is based from the 10K filing of BLFS.
   
3. 2020/07/01 BioLife Solutions Announces $9.6 Million to $9.8 Million in Preliminary Revenue for Q2 2020.   
   
4. 2020/07/02 BioLife Solutions Announces Pricing of $75 Million Public Offering of Common Stock. Proceeds of this public offering will be utilized for acquisition of companies that align or compliment their own technology.
   
   Most stocks that offer public offering will always experience a period of price devaluation. Investors look forward to that end because, that is where they can possibly position themselves at a cheaper price. Market Maker of course will try the best way they can to get the price to lower down so it could offer cheaper valuation to big buyers.
   
   If today we are seeing a double top on the chart, Market Maker may make of this as a good scenario to drop the price and those small time holders who will see the drop will panic and release their shares, giving the Market Maker more shares to collect and offer later at a cheaper price to big time investors.

CALCULATING THE Target Price based on the W Pattern and its rise.
Based on this pattern we could somehow calculate the possible target price of the stock.

1. The rise from position W to the (X2) at 17.25 comprised of a height equal to $9.8. We call this height as H1.
2. If we use that same height as H2 and place its bottom at position Z at around $14.50. Then by adding H2, $9.8 to Z, $14.50, we can get a possible rise of $24.35. This is our Target Price based on the W Patter price ascent. 

CALCULATING THE PRICE TARGET BASED ON THE BREAKOUT

1. The candle and the volume on July 2, 2020 made a huge move of the price. The candle showing is a bullish engulfing candle from a low of $15.64 to a high of $20.42. 
2. This candle of July 2, 2020 broke the Previous High (PH) of $17.25 with a Breakout Close (BC) of $17.98.
3. Volatility Low (VL) is at around $11.00 which is the top of the drop off candle of March 12, 2020. That is when the volume's height is second in length against July 2, 2020.
4. Substituting all the values of PH, VL and BC, we can then solve the Target Price (TP).
   
   TP = ((PH-VL)*3) + BC
   TP = Target Price
   PH = Previous High
   VL = Volatility Low
   BC = Breakout Close
   
   TP = ((17.25 - 11) * 3) + 17.98
   TP = 36.73 or 37.00
   
5. We basically have a bigger Target Price compared to our W Pattern Target Price.
   We can then use this for our Profit taking target. We will try to enter between $14.50 to $16.50 and we will set our profit taking in 3 different levels.
   If we buy 300 shares, then we sill have the following profit level set up.
   
   1st PROFIT TAKING set @ $20.00 - 1st 100 shares
   2nd PROFIT TAKING set @ $27.00 - 2nd 100 shares
   3rd PROFIT TAKING set @ $37.00 - Last 100 shares
   
   

PRACTICE MAKES YOU PERFECT.
There are 2 practices that you can do to do this kind of move.

PRACTICE GAME on Accelotrade using a similar W Pattern of ETSY.

PRACTICE GAME USING BLFS from Previous date as far back as Feb. 13, 2017.

Here are the Parameter setup you can use in creating the game for yourself in Accelotrade.

1. Practice in PLAY Mode using the W set up of ETSY in Accelotrade.com
   Use the following parameters in creating your game.
   
   Name: ETSY_yourname_yyymmdd
   Timeout: 0.01 hrs
   Simulation Date: April 24, 2020
   Duration: 67 Days
   Security Type:  Custom
   Stock: ETSY
   
   
   Here is the simulation http://www.accelotrade.com/moi/?gameID=G_18450946645401584
   
   
2. Practice a previous set up of BLFS.
   Use the following parameters in creating your game.
   
   Name: BLFS_yourname_yyymmdd
   Timeout: 0.01 hrs
   Simulation Date: Feb. 13, 2017
   Duration: 154 Days
   Security Type:  Custom
   Stock: BLFS
   
   Create the game first and play it before watching the tradingview chart below.

BLFS Feb.13, 2017 to March 12, 2020 (154 days run) on TradingView.com