FUV - Fun Utility Vehicle

Early of June 2020 when lock-down of Covid-19 had been eased, a lot of companies especially in the Electric Vehicle Industry had been surging higher. Among the companies other than TESLA (TSLA) that share the same principle of using batteries charged through electricity are FUV, WKHS, NIO, NIU, and NKLA. We know that TESLA had been the pioneer of the electric vehicle and actually leading the race towards innovating the entire vehicle industry. But what caught my eyes the most is when looking at the Sales Quarter per Quarter of FUV.

Here is the entry of Finviz that will make your eyes to pop.

Fig. 1 FUV on Finviz with 23,219.30% Sales Q/Q

This stock makes the so called electric tricyle. In the Philippines you will see that tricycles or pedicabs are a common passenger vehicles for the country in the cities as well as even in the provinces. Here's how they look like.

Fig. 2 Tricycles in the Philippines

These had been slowly replaced with e-trikes which are powered not with gasoline but with electrically charged batteries that are capable of bringing it to 60kms of run before the 2 hr charge runs out. The government of the Philippines through its Office DOE (Department of Energy) were working together with the supplier BEMAC that completed its delivery of 3,000 units last September 2019.

Fig. 3 New e-Trikes in the Philippines

The picture above is the sample e-trike which Mayor Estrada had been pushing to replace the pedicabs and make a Manila a "green city". The e-trikes can save not only the planet but as well as the expenditures of the drivers who do not need to spend for gasoline and boundary fees anymore. The Philippines, despite being the least with North America had been ahead in rolling out something new. The better part of the new e-trike is that it can actually have 6 passengers including the driver. Pretty cool eh! For more information there is a video in youtube about BEMAC e-trikes.

Now back to North America, this new technology which is going to be the bread and butter of transportation as well as livelihood in the Philippines was somewhat taken into different light. It is going to be a Fun Utility Vehicle. So instead of having the usual Sports Utility Vehicle, you now have the new Fun Utility Vehicle by Arcimoto. The only downside of this Fun Utility Vehicle is that it can hold only 2 persons much like just an ordinary motorcycle, except that it has three wheels and runs on batteries.

Fig. 4 Arcimoto FUV "Fun Utility Vehicle"

The main idea that Arcimoto presented is to cater to the entertainment need of the people. No wonder it was designed for only 2 seats. Mark Frohnmayer, CEO & Founder of Arcimoto mentioned that like San Diego of which they noticed most people utilized the Ubber and the Lift for going around. So if they can have FUV stationed around that people can easily rent like the scooters, people would really love to see that and will have more fun with it. Thus, its name take the name FUV, FUN Utility Vehicle.

Back with the chart it had created, FUV had jumped 816% rise after it bottomed to 0.97 during March 2019 during the Covid-19 lockdown.

Fig. 5 FUV on Tradingview 816% Rise

But like I said, what caught my attention other than the rise of its stock is the Sales Quarter for Quarter listed in Finviz. I always want to know the reason behind the sudden surge of its price and why there had been great demand that pushes the stock to mark up its price higher.

And these are the interesting facts I found. 

SEC.GOV "All Filings of every companies should be in this site"
Even though sec.gov is supposed to be the main resource for all the company filings of a company. This time Arcimoto did not place all there Press Releases in filings. You need to go to their website and learn the Press Releases that they made.

1.8 to 2.63 Jump on April 27, 2020
When it made a jump from 1.80 to 2.63 in a day last April 27, 2020, there was nothing in the filings that talked about it. There was however a filing of DEF 14A 2 days after the significant rise which was about the Notice of Annual Meeting of Shareholders. It also talked about the plan to approve an amendment to the Arcimoto, Inc. 2018 Omnibus Stock Incentive Plan to increase the number of shares reserved for issuance thereunder by 2,000,000 shares. (See Fig. 6 FUV on April 27, 2020 and 2 days after)

Fig. 6 FUV on April 27, 2020 and 2 days after

10K - Revenue Up by 940% in 2019 compared to 2018 - April 14, 2020

Digging up a little further I found out 9 days before the Spike in price and volume FUV had released its 10K with a huge revenue jump from 2018 to 2019 and these were the interesting things that came up.

They also highlighted this report in their Press Release which was placed in their website. It was also placed under 8-K on sec.gov. Revenue was up by  940%, with 2019 raking up $987.85K compared to $94.99K of 2018. Revenues were mostly due to 46 Evergreen FUV Edition.

1. 891K from FUV Sales
2. 20K on related party
3. 49K on Delivery charges
4. 44K from Machining
5. $2K from Parts and Services

As you can see they still are not profitable by any margin. They just started anyway. The Net Loss have increased from ($11M) to ($15.3M). Yet. these did not deter the Investors to pour money in 9days after creating a spike for this new company which debuted last Sep 21, 2017 (less than 3 years ago).

June 9, 2020 Re-Opening of Few Businesses another spike upward on FUV.

29 Trading days after the initial run FUV made another significant New High of $3.57. 

Remember also, that last May 12, 2020 they filed an 8K in the securities commission that the 10Q of 2020-Q1 will be delayed to June 29, 2020 due to Covid-19 Pandemic Lockdown. The deal of interest came surging again in anticipation of another good news from Arcimoto.

The surge may also have been fueled because of the re-opening of some businesses after the lock-down on Covid-19. Surprisingly enough, the entire gamut of Electric Vehicle Industry seemed to be in unison of that same day. 

WKHS - Workhorse was up breaking out to a New High above the 200 days moving average.

  

TSLA - Tesla was also up even though the volume was not really very strong. But since TSLA was the pioneer, the entire industry may have come rallying with it. TSLA was actually up the day before.

NIO was also breaking out to New High pretty similar to TSLA move.

NKLA had the greatest spike, a clear Supernova move from $40.00 to over $90.00.

June 10, 2020 PRESS RELEASE

1 Day after the June 9, 2020 Spike, Arcimoto issued another press release mentioning that the Net Pre-Orders of FUV had increased by 980. So from 3,217 it had gone to 4,197 total Pre-Orders. If you multiply this against the FUV retail price they set last Feb. 7, 2019 of $11,900 this would bring up a huge revenue of $49,944,300. That's a lot of money on pre-orders.

June 11, 2020 Arcimoto released 10Q for 2020-Q1

Unaudited 10Q Gross Profit had turned over negative $1M due to the high expenses on the cost of Goods being sold reaching $1.6M. Such report of course did not deter investors from coming in to buy more shares. Although this can be a source of red flag already on Arcimoto with stock price so jacked up and revenue turning sour due to heavy expenses 

The price of course of FUV had risen up to $8.89. Mind you, their Press Release last June 10, 2020 also include a 4 year contract with 160 FUV from New Zealand. This would translate into $1.9M if we multiply the 160 FUV units to its retail price of closed to $12K. 

The company therefore looks promising. We just need to find were the comfortable support line for the big pocket guys to come in and start putting in again their money. Currently, profit taking are what you can see starting July 6, 2020 with a huge red volume. However, we see an anomaly of the red volume 5 days later when the red candle was dropping heavily but with a volume slightly half the size of July 6, 2020. This is an exhaustion from the sellers side. They seemed to have been overcome by the bulls.

 

In the hourly chart of FUV, it seems to be that the red volumes are getting smaller. Jul 8, 2020 is when we saw an anomaly of the price move. There was not much volume to push the price higher and the red volumes were picking up in succession on July 9, 2020. People are getting scared and those who had came in early are also taking their profits from the table. Big time Investors are just waiting fro the right time to come in. As you can see, the possible support range would be around $4.50 to $5.00.

If this company is able to control the expenses and start having the orders being paid with continuous more orders being processed, there is a big possibility that the company would not just surpassed it latest high of $8.89 but it will have the potential to go beyond. Last June 29, 2020 they also made another Press Release stating that there will be 170,000 Repair Centers to be established. If you assume that there will be 20FUVs per repair center then we can deduct that we will be expecting around 3.4M FUVs to be produced with $40.8 Billion Expected Revenue. These are all hypothetical of course. But if they can stand like Tesla did, then they will be able to really make this into a reality.