Wednesday, August 12, 2020

AMD - huge run after VCP - $53.00 or 189% profit after a year

 Last Jul 5, 2019, I sent out an email about my analysis on AMD.

This was the content of that email.

  1. This AMD formation is the 3rd VCP from the Darvas Base of $16-$20 range. See Darvas Box (range: $16-$20)
  2. The Failed top of June 10, 2019 on $34.00 formed Double top against Sep. 13, 2019. Therefore you can expect the stock to retest key support levels before bouncing up against this $34.00 resistance.
  3. The possible key supports are the whole number $30.00 and $28.85 near the close of the 2 candles supported with 2 green big volumes. See circled supporting volumes and their corresponding candles.
  4. If you count the number of bars associated from previous breakout to breakout on the VCP, the count is consistent with 48 bars. See VCP 1, VCP 2. So if it follows the same pattern, we can deduce that around August 5, 2019, there is a possible breakout from VCP 3. I could be wrong, but that is a probability based on the pattern.  
  5. The entry range will be based on the retest of the top on each previous breakout. See again VCP 1 and VCP 2. All consecutive drop of candles stop just right about the high of each previous candle trying to penetrate from the bottom left side of each VCP triangle. See the blue arrows pointing upward. So the possible entry range will be between $28.85 to $30.00, which are the support levels in this case.
    WARNING: Make sure to calculate your profit target and your Stop Loss before entering a trade.
  6. A strong volume is needed to breakout the $34.00 resistance, otherwise it will continue to drop and retest again another key support before creating a triple top.
  7. If you enter on 28.85, make sure to place a stop loss at 27.50.
Check the chart I loaded up with my analysis. https://www.tradingview.com/x/d1kGZGUu/

Cheers and have a good one.


My advise at that time is to position around $28.85 to $30.00. Had you done so, you could have made around $53.00 profit.

Today is August 12, 2020 1 and a half after.
And here is the chart of AMD. 




1 comment:

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